A FUTURES THINKING WORLD
A Manifesto.
This manifesto serves as an invitation to embrace futures thinking.
Let's step back from the immediacy of the present and explore the multitude of paths stretching out from today.
Let's move way from trying to use the past to predict and let's use futures thinking as our compass, guiding us through the uncertainty of tomorrow.
Let's embark on the journey together comfortable with the unknown and comfortable with our ability to navigate and manifest the world we want to thrive in.
The power to shape our tomorrow, and the tomorrows of our children, lies in our hands, and it begins with futures thinking.
A video promoting a manifesto for a futures thinking world x insight & foresight.
A Futures Thinking World.
In an ever-evolving world, where the only constant is change, we stand at a critical juncture.
Our world is on a precipice.
Political, social, economic, environmental and technological turmoil is upon us.
Our long term thinking and planning is under threat as we struggle to understand how the world around us works.
The old ways of thinking are no longer fit for purpose and we need to embrace new ideas grounded in futures thinking and robust foresight method to support better decision making for today, developed with a long view towards our futures.
We need to start thinking about our futures in a more intentional and purposed way. We need to embrace futures thinking as a tool to navigate through the uncertainty, ambiguity and complexity of our reality. It is not enough to just react to what is happening around us, we must prepare within a consciousness of our desired future state. This means using futures thinking to map out potential scenarios and plan for different futures, rather than just accepting the present as our only option.
Futures thinking is about taking a proactive approach towards shaping our futures, rather than being passive recipients of change. It is a mindset that encourages us to think critically about emerging trends and potential challenges, in order to develop effective strategies and solutions. This foresight process is not just limited to big corporations or governments - individuals can also benefit from incorporating futures thinking into their reflections and decision making.
Imagine a world where everyone is equipped with the mental models of foresight, where we can anticipate and plan for future challenges and opportunities. A world where we are not caught off guard by sudden shifts or changes, but rather have a proactive plan in place.
This is the world this manifesto promotes.
A world where futures thinking becomes a fundamental way of thinking, ingrained in our daily lives and decision making processes.
We must recognise that our futures are not static - they are constantly evolving and changing based on our actions and decisions in the present. This is why it is crucial to embrace futures thinking. It allows us to not only prepare for potential change, but also to shape positive and sustainable futures.
Developing Foresight.
The art and science of foresight involves envisioning different futures and the exploration of potential patterns of change. It is not about predicting a single future, but rather exploring and understanding a range of plausible futures based on current dynamics and drivers of change. It's about deeper insights.
Foresight improves our ability to identify not just a preferred future, but a range of possible futures and plausible futures. This allows us to come up with strategies and contingency plans that can be adapted to different scenarios.
Too often, our choices are bound by the immediate, the urgent, and the familiar, neglecting the vast landscapes of possibilities that lie ahead. By embracing futures thinking and foresight, we expand our vision beyond the present moment and extend our focus to the long-term implications of our decisions.
It is important to remember that foresight is not about being right or wrong, but about increasing our understanding of the complexities and uncertainties of the world we live in. It is about being prepared for various outcomes and having the flexibility to adapt to changes as they come.
So how can we develop foresight? Here are some tips:
Stay informed.
Keep up to date with current events, trends, and emerging technologies. This will help you understand the forces that shape our world and how they may influence different futures.
Think critically.
Don't just accept information at face value. Question assumptions, challenge biases, and consider multiple perspectives to gain a more comprehensive understanding of a situation.
Use creative thinking techniques.
Use tools such as brainstorming, mind mapping, and scenario planning to explore different possibilities and generate new ideas. This can help you envision a range of plausible futures.
Consider the implications.
When making decisions, think beyond the immediate outcomes and consider how they may impact the future. This will help you identify potential risks and opportunities.
Collaborate and seek diverse perspectives.
Engage in conversations with people from different backgrounds, industries, and cultures. This can provide valuable insights and challenge your assumptions.
Reflect and learn.
Regularly take the time to reflect on current events, decisions made, and future projections. Learn from past experiences and use them to inform your foresight thinking.
Developing foresight is an ongoing process and requires continuous learning and adaptation. By staying informed, thinking critically, using creative techniques, considering implications, seeking diverse perspectives, and reflecting on your experiences, you can enhance your foresight abilities and confidently navigate uncertain futures.
Strategic Foresight.
For businesses in the corporate and public sector the art and science of strategic foresight utilises horizon scanning and scenario planning to create future scenarios built using data and expert insights from a wide range of sources. This approach helps to identify weaknesses, blindspots, and potential threats or opportunities that could arise in their futures. Corporate foresight supports innovation management, as well as the business strategy process and drives long term competitive advantage. For government it supports policy making to ensure government policy embraces a long view and is not held hostage by day to day political instability.
Leaders and decision makers must be equipped with the tools and methods to navigate this ever-changing world, and strategic foresight is a key factor to their success. In a world where the exponential growth of technological advancements and societal shocks occur at an unprecedented pace, it's more important than ever to adopt a forward-thinking mindset.
Strategic foresight offers a holistic approach to planning and decision making, taking into account multiple perspectives and considering various potential outcomes. It encourages organisations to think strategically about their futures, rather than just reacting to immediate problems or issues. By anticipating plausible futures, possible futures, probable futures and preferred futures to develop strategies that can adapt and thrive in any scenario.
Building corporate foresight capabilities to support strategic planning helps management teams to make better informed decisions, be more adaptive and agile in response to change, and prepare for any potential challenges that may arise. As new trends emerge managers can rethink their strategies to prepare for a range of possibilities. Structured foresight work using robust foresight methods allows leadership teams to explore possible futures and engage in deep discussions, challenge assumptions and identify blind spots.
In addition, strategic foresight also fosters a culture of constant learning and adaptation within organisations. By continuously scanning the external environment for new developments and trends, businesses can stay ahead of competitors and make proactive adjustments to their strategies. This approach also encourages employees to think creatively and contribute innovative ideas, promoting a sense of ownership and empowerment within the organisation.
Emerging Change and Trends.
One of the key tools when incorporating strategic foresight into planning is the ability to identify emerging changes and trends. By regularly scanning the external environment, organisations can keep a pulse on new developments and shifts in their industry or market. By anticipating these changes, businesses can make proactive adjustments to their strategies in order to stay competitive and relevant.
Key Drivers.
Key drivers are powerful combinations of emerging changes and trends that are the driving forces of change that shape the futures of an organisation. These can include technology, consumer behaviour, political changes, and economic shifts. By identifying key drivers and monitoring their potential impact on the organization's future, leaders can proactively adjust strategies to stay ahead of the curve. Understanding key drivers also helps organisations adapt to changing circumstances and remain competitive in a rapidly evolving business landscape.
Scenario Planning.
Scenario planning is a powerful tool used in strategic foresight that involves creating multiple plausible future scenarios for an organisation, based on various factors such as political, economic, social and technological developments. By considering different scenarios, organisations can better prepare for potential challenges and opportunities that may arise in their futures. This approach allows for more agile and adaptive decision-making, promoting a sense of ownership and empowerment within the organisation. It encourages leaders to think beyond the status quo and consider different possibilities, leading to more resilient strategies that can withstand unexpected changes. Overall, scenario planning is an essential aspect of strategic foresight that enables organisations to navigate uncertain futures with confidence and flexibility.
Without foresight, we remain trapped in our current realities, unable to see beyond what is in front of us. We must break free from this limited thinking and embrace a more expansive view of our futures. By doing so, we can better understand the potential consequences of our actions and make more informed decisions that will lead to the emergence of brighter tomorrows. Let us not limit ourselves by only considering what we know, but instead open our minds to the possibilities of what could be. Let us embrace futures thinking and foresight for a better world today and in the years to come. Let us envision multiple futures, plan for uncertainty, and pave the way towards futures that are not just shaped by chance but by our conscious choices. This is the power of foresight, and it is one that we must harness if we hope to create a better world for ourselves and generations to come.
Embracing Change.
Change is inevitable, but it can also be scary. As we experience exponential change and its impact on our world, let us not shy away from uncertainty, but rather embrace it with open minds and hearts. By continuously learning and adapting to new realities, we can better shape our futures in a way that benefits all of humanity. Let us not fear change, but instead use it as a catalyst for progress and growth. After all, change is the only constant in our lives. So let's embrace it and make the most of it.
Whilst the status quo can feel safe we need to see change as an opportunity to create positive impact and find new solutions. It's important to understand that change can be uncomfortable, but it also opens up new possibilities and perspectives. When we are willing to embrace change, we are able to break out of our comfort zones and discover untapped potential within ourselves. This mindset allows us to approach challenges with an open mind and a willingness to learn, rather than being hindered by fear or resistance to change.
Our world is changing at a rapid pace, and it's up to us as individuals, organisations and as a society to adapt and evolve with it. By embracing change, we can stay ahead of the curve and be better prepared for whatever comes our way. This requires a mindset that values flexibility, creativity, and resilience. It also means being open to new ideas and ways of thinking, and not being afraid to challenge the old ways of working.
Non-Linear Thinking.
Our futures will not emerge in a straight line. We must break away from linear thinking and embrace the concept of multiple paths in order to thrive in this ever-changing world. We must also learn to think critically about the consequences of our actions and decisions, both in the short term and long term. As we consider multiple sets of variable and dynamic paths, it is crucial that we reflect on how our decisions today could impact on our world and how we can create sustainable futures for all.
Non-linear thinking involves breaking away from traditional linear thought processes and considering multiple paths and possibilities. This type of thinking promotes creativity, adaptability, and innovation in a constantly evolving world.
For example, instead of following a set path or plan to achieve a goal, non-linear thinking allows us to explore different approaches and consider all possible outcomes. It also encourages us to question the status quo and challenge conventional thinking in order to find new solutions.
Non-linear thinking requires us to think critically and holistically about the consequences of our actions and decisions. This means considering not only short-term gains but also long-term impacts on individuals, society, and the environment. By embracing this type of thinking, we can make informed decisions that promote sustainable futures for all.
A Collective Endeavour.
In the rapidly evolving world where uncertainty often seems to be the only certainty, the practice of foresight—or futures thinking—has never been more critical. Yet, it’s a common misconception that this practice falls solely on the shoulders of individual futurists, policymakers, or industry leaders. I argue that foresight is inherently a collective endeavor, one that demands participation from all corners of society to truly be effective.
Unlike forecasting, which often leads to a singular view of our futures, foresight invites us to explore multiple plausible futures. It's about broadening our horizons, stretching our imagination beyond the conventional, and contemplating a tapestry of possibilities. This cannot be a myopic or solitary pursuit; it necessitates diverse intellects, experiences, and perspectives to contribute to a rich and expansive dialogue.
Why Individual Efforts Are Not Enough.
How can a single person’s vision encompass the vast array of cultural, social, economic, and environmental factors that will shape wha might happen next? How can one mind anticipate the needs, hopes, and aspirations of many? The answer is, it can't. No single person holds a crystal ball that reveals the complex interplay of forces that will define our futures.
More so, individual foresight suffers from inherent biases. We are products of our environment, upbringing, and personal experiences, which can limit our ability to envision futures that lie outside our own bubble. Thus, futures thinking must not only cross disciplinary boundaries but also socio-economic, cultural, and geopolitical lines.
Collaboration: The Bedrock of Meaningful Foresight.
Collaborative foresight doesn’t merely add quantity to the mix but offers a qualitative shift in how we approach our futures. When we bring together people from varied fields—scientists with artists, educators with technologists, youth with elders—we create a fertile ground for ideas that no individual thinking could generate.
This multiplicity of voices challenges our assumptions and uncovers blind spots. The collective examines the assumptions of the individual, leading to more robust, resilient, and adaptable visions of our futures. It is in the spirit of collaboration that we find the wisdom to ask better questions and, in turn, foster richer scenarios for what may lie ahead.
Empowering Collective Imagination.
When we, as a society, engage in foresight, we do more than imagine together—we build a shared commitment to anticipated challenges and opportunities. It's this shared commitment that will empower us to take action. After all, we are more likely to work towards futures that we have had a hand in shaping—futures that acknowledge our values, addresses our concerns, and inspire our ambitions.
Collective imagination breaks down the barriers of inertia and resignation, which often stymie individual action. When we share a vision, the sense of accountability and possibility grows. This is the engine of change, the catalyst for moving from passive contemplation to active creation.
The narrative around futures thinking needs an overhaul. It's time we recognise foresight as a collective exercise—one that calls for the synthesis of different outlooks and the democratisation of future narratives. We must encourage broad participation, foster inclusive dialogues, and cultivate an environment where every voice has space to resonate.
The power of our collective effort—our shared imagination and creativity working in unison—should not be underestimated. It is the way by which we can build bridges towards not one, but many possible tomorrows. In this concerted effort lies the potential to craft a world that isn't just a default outcome of unchallenged trends, but a deliberate, thoughtful construction of our making.
Become A Good Ancestor.
In the tapestry of human history, each individual’s existence is akin to a single thread interwoven with countless others. Our lives are fleeting; what remains and continues is the shared fabric that encapsulates the collective heritage of humanity. Today, more than any time in our past, we stand at a pivotal juncture—the decisions we make now are not merely for the present or the immediate tomorrow but extend far beyond, irreversibly shaping the landscape for those who will walk the Earth after us. It is our sacred obligation, then, to become good ancestors.
The concept might seem abstract, even idealistic, but its essence is rooted in something profoundly practical and immediate: responsibility. We are heirs to previous generations whose actions have, in parts, both enriched and compromised the world we live in. Their choices in governance, environment, and societal norms have set the stage upon which we now act. Similarly, it is incumbent upon us to set a stage for future acts—a stage that is not fraught with insurmountable challenges but one that has been tended to with foresight, compassion, and wisdom.
The stakes are high; our actions or inactions today play a crucial role in determining the futures of humanity, along with the well-being of animals, plants, and ecosystems. Our legacy will be shaped by the choices we make in areas such as climate change, technological innovation, healthcare, education, and social justice. These are just a few of the critical sectors where our decisions have the power to leave a lasting impact. Will we choose immediate gratification and convenience, or will we endeavor to be far-sighted, prioritising sustainability and equity over the expedient?
It is a delicate balance to strike—to live fully in the present while being mindful of our futures and their futures; however, history does not afford us the luxury of choosing one over the other. We must find a way to do both. What form will our cities take? How will we produce and consume food? Will technological progress uplift or undermine our shared humanity? These questions should not only concern policymakers and leaders; they should resonate within each of us, as we all leave an enduring mark on the course of history.
Imagine a world where the yardstick of success is not merely economic growth but the legacy we leave behind for those yet to be born. Imagine a world where our legislative bodies don't just deliberate on laws affecting the present but also consider their impact on the next seven generations. This isn’t a flight of fancy but a feasible model, rooted in the profound wisdom of Indigenous cultures that have always included future generations in their governance decisions.
To be good ancestors, we must integrate the long-term implications of our choices into every facet of our lives. We must consider the environmental impact of our consumption, the digital footprints we leave behind, and the ethos we pass down to the next generation. Whether through the products we create or the policies we support, our legacy will be judged by how conscientiously we acted as stewards of this planet and its inhabitants.
The task at hand is, without question, complex. Yet, humanity has never shied away from complexity when inspired by a noble cause. Our present is an accumulated legacy of many 'goods'—good intentions, good efforts, good innovations. In aspiring to be good ancestors, we chart the course for a future not just survived but thrived in.
We can no longer afford to be mere observers as time slips by. It is imperative that we take an active role in sculpting our futures, to ensure we leave behind a world enriched with opportunities and unlimited potential, rather than a diminished one. Therefore, with every decision and action, whether grand or modest, let us strive to be remembered as good ancestors, not solely for our accomplishments but for the clear, purposeful path we forged for future generations to follow, long after we have departed.
Informed Uncertainty.
At its essence futures thinking is about informed uncertainty. We cannot predict the future, but we can prepare for our futures by considering a range of possibilities and choices and understanding their potential development and implications. Futures thinking, strategic foresight, scenario planning, foresight, futures studies, long term thinking - are all different names for the same practice - the process of research and planning to access information about the uncertainty of what might happen next. This is the realm of informed uncertainty, a space where we can acquire knowledge, adjust, and ready ourselves for whatever lies ahead. It is a space we must embrace to navigate the constantly evolving landscape of our world with confidence.
Futures Scenarios.
In the fast-paced world we live in, our futures often feel like a distant mirage—always on the horizon yet never quite within our grasp. But what if we could sketch the contours of plausible futures with our own narratives? The power of storytelling in shaping our tomorrow cannot be overstated. I believe that it is imperative we become adept at telling rich, well-researched stories about possible futures. These narratives serve as a canvas—an exploratory sandbox—to play out the intricate possibilities of what could unfold.
Our futures are not a destination set in stone; they are a realm of endless possibilities, a tapestry woven by the threads of our decisions and innovations. It's time we stepped up our game in spinning stories about these futures—a skill that requires an intricate balance of creativity grounded in data and research. Only then can we ignite meaningful conversations that focus not just on fleeting trends but on sustainable visions that will benefit generations to come.
The Meta-Narrative of Our Time.
We stand at a critical juncture in history where technology, climate change, and geopolitics are converging to create a complex web of potential futures. Yet, despite this reality, our collective narrative remains myopic, often limited to short-term gains, reactionary measures, the news cycle. We are starved for stories that inspire ingenuity, that challenge our assumptions, and that stir us to action towards futures that are not only possible but desirable.
Imagine scenarios rich with detail, underpinned by the latest scientific findings and socio-economic research, that lay out diverse paths for society. Such narratives could encompass the emergence of new technologies, the evolution of societal norms, or the impacts of changing ecosystems. By painting vivid pictures of these futures, we begin to understand the implications of our present-day decisions and feel compelled to act with foresight and wisdom.
The Sandboxes of Creativity.
Creating futures scenarios should be likened to a child’s play in a sandbox—free-form, imaginative, and exploratory, yet within the bounds of reality. We must engage with futurism not as a dreary prediction of doom or a blind utopian dream but as a constructive exercise in creativity. It's about crafting stories that engage communities, governments, and businesses alike to ponder and shape the environments we want to create.
Take, for example, a scenario where urban development focuses not only on building upwards but growing inwards, with integrated green spaces and self-sufficient communities. Or consider a future where AI in education has become so tailored that every child learns at their own pace, guided by technology but driven by human mentorship. These are more than mere predictions; they're conversation starters, policy inspirations, and frameworks for innovation.
Stories That Drive Action.
While conjuring up multiple scenarios can be intellectually stimulating, the ultimate goal of these narratives should be to galvanise action. They should serve as rallying points from which society can draw inspiration to pivot where necessary and bolster endeavors that lead us to favorable outcomes. They are not alarmist prophecies or wishful thinking, but rather pragmatic daydreams that inform and guide our present-day choices.
Our ability to dream about our futures has immense power—the push and pull of these dreams shape reality. If we are to step forward confidently into the murky unknown, we need to leverage stories as stepping stones. Grounded in reality yet bold in aspiration, these stories of potential futures need to be shared widely and discussed openly. Our futures are a narrative in progress, and we are all its authors.
Each articulate scenario has the potential to spark a revolution in thought, to guide us towards a better, more considerate futures. It is our task, no—our imperative—to craft and proliferate these stories. Within these strands of hope and foresight, we find the raw materials needed to build a tomorrow that expresses the best of us, and avoids the worst.
A Call To Action.
It is more important than ever that we engage in futures thinking and foresight. We have the power and the responsibility to shape our futures and ensure the longevity of our people and our planet. As stewards, let us use our knowledge, creativity, and determination to create sustainable futures for all - human, plant and animal. Let us embrace informed uncertainty and be proactive in shaping a better world for ourselves and future generations.
The time for action is now.
Let us embark on a journey of learning, imagination, and planning for our futures.
Our world depends on it.
Let us start with small steps and build towards a brighter tomorrow together through the power of futures thinking.
We have the tools, we have the knowledge, and we have the passion.
Now is the time to use them for the greater good.
Let us not shy away from uncertainty, but rather embrace it as an opportunity for growth and positive change.
Let us be proactive in shaping our futures, instead of being reactive to the unknown.
The power is in our hands - let us use it wisely and build a better tomorrow through futures thinking, foresight, and scenario planning. The possibilities are endless, so let us come together and create futures that we can all be proud of. As we have said before:
"futures don't just happen to us, they happen with us."
So let us start actively creating the futures we desire through meaningful conversations, informed decisions, and shared visions for better tomorrows.
The Author.
This manifesto was written by James Clampett, Principal at leading foresight consultancy insight & foresight.
James is a passionate advocate for the power of imagining and creating alternative futures. He passionately believes that we must embrace futures thinking to save our world and shape a better tomorrow for generations to come.
With over 20 years of deep experience and knowledge, James has helped numerous organisations better navigate complex futures to achieve their desired outcomes.
Through his work, he hopes to empower individuals and organisations to think beyond the status quo and embrace the potential of tomorrow.
insight & foresight.
insight & foresight is a unique consultancy that provides CEOs & Boards with the longer-term thinking they need to plan & make decisions for impact & future growth. We do this by helping our clients see beyond the short-term, busy-work distractions to develop foresight – the ability to anticipate future trends and opportunities. With greater foresight, our clients can make better decisions, achieve their desired outcomes, and deliver sustainable impact.